Chicago bears Cutler’s slow rise into the ranks of the high-end No. 2 fantasy triggermen during the last month tells us that some fantasy owners are suffering from a disease known as “wishful thinking.” Don’t forget – during the second half of 2010, the Bears forced pass-happy offensive coordinator Mike Martz to dial down his scheme to compensate for Chicago’s porous offensive line and to help keep Cutler upright. Martz grudgingly resorted to using a conservative, run-oriented attack that relied on a short passing game to counter the aggressive blitzing schemes from opposing defenses. From Week 10 through Week 17, Cutler’s 221 pass attempts (27.6 per game) ranked just 15th among all NFL quarterbacks.
He compiled 1,603 passing yards and 14 touchdown passes against nine picks; however, Cutler failed to top 250 passing yards in a contest and failed to toss a touchdown pass in three outings. Does this sound like solid No. 2 fantasy quarterback production to you? It’s reasonable to expect bigger numbers from Cutler, because he knows the offense better. However, ongoing pass protection issues, a shortage of playmakers in the wide receiver corps and the Bears’ expected reliance on the same run-heavy approach that helped them get to the NFC Championship game likely will hold his numbers in check again. Cutler still was sacked 24 times during the second half of 2010 (and a league-leading 51 times on the season), which suggests that Chicago’s pass protection did not improve at all.
The Bears drafted offensive tackle Gabe Carimi. The first-rounder is expected to start on the right side, but there obviously will be a learning curve with him in part because of the lockout. Chicago did not have a 1,000-yard receiver last season (Johnny Knox led the Bears with 960 receiving yards) and did not address the position in the draft. Any notable wideout that Chicago signs in free agency also will need time to learn Martz’s complicated offense. A modest uptick in Cutler’s numbers is expected, but his overall fantasy production probably will fall into the fantasy QB18 – QB 20 range.
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