fedor emelianenko m baffled that this line still exists. This time last year, no one gave Fabricio Werdum a chance in hell of toppling Fedor Emelianenko, and people started to wonder whether Dan Henderson's time as an elite fighter had passed after a meek decision loss to Jake Shields. Had this fight taken place then, the Russian might have pushed a four-digit betting line. Yet, here we are, with the oddsmakers handing you a break-even rate just under 71.5% on Emelianenko. I'm all over this like M-1 Global on an opportunity to renegotiate. Fedor/Hendo does not complete 2 rounds +160 (Bodog) and Over 2.5 rounds +135/Goes to a decision +140 (5Dimes) We're going to use these props as a refresher on Expected Value (EV).
The sample size isn't huge, but, for our purposes, heavyweight fights break down with 65% finished before the the start of round 3, 26% going to decision, and the remaining 9% ending during the last round. Now, those numbers probably aren't reflective of the probabilities for this fight in particular, but it's fair to say they're in the ballpark. For simplicity's sake, let's put a $100 bet on the fight not completing two rounds and the fight going to a decision. If the fight ends in round one or two, we make $60. If it goes to a decision, we win $40. If it ends in the third round, we lose $200. Now, intuitively, that looks like a bad bet. But we also have to factor in that the probabilities are weighted. Here's the math:
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